Goto, C., Ogawa, Y., Shuto, N., and Imamura, F. (1997). The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. (2016). Second, using the effective dimension, the Box–Cox analysis is conducted to characterize the probability distribution of slip values within the fault plane by identifying the best power parameter (λ) to transform a non-normal random variable (X) to a normal random variable (Y) as presented in Eq. Sumatra. Deformation and slip along the Sunda megathrust in the great 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake. Available at:, Ji, C., and Zeng, Y. In addition, the spectral analysis is conducted to define the correlation lengths along dip and strike and the Hurst number. Some critical system pieces are still missing in these efforts, however. doi:10.1126/science.1126960, Ji, C. (2005a). J. Geophys. The Sunda Megathrust remains the most hazardous fault in the Indonesian archipelago. (2016), those studies implemented uniform slip models that oversimplify the earthquake source characteristics and considered a limited number of scenarios for future tsunamigenic events. Seismic and tsunami hazard potentials in Indonesia with a special emphasis on Sumatra Island. “Much of the loss stemming from the great Aceh-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided,” Sieh wrote in a 2007 Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami paper. First, earthquake source parameters, i.e., W, L, Da, Dm, λ, Az, Ax, and H, are generated using the prediction models (Tables 2 and 3). Available at:, Hayes, G. P., and Ji, C. (2008). The median and the 10th/90th percentiles of maximum tsunami wave height profiles along the coastal line of Padang are shown in Figure 10B. (2007). This study implements the stochastic tsunami simulation to assess the tsunami hazard in Padang areas. doi:10.1002/2014JB011200, Satake, K., Nishimura, Y., Putra, P. S., Gusman, A. R., Sunendar, H., Fujii, Y., et al. J. Seismol. “Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia,” in Geohazards in Indonesia: Earth Science for Disaster Risk Reduction, eds P. R. Cummins and I. Meilano (London: Geological Society). View all Res. The past seismicity in the Mentawai segment indicates that the most destructive historical event in this segment occurred in 1833. And although disaster forecasting and warning technologies can help, none are perfect. Geophys. Geophys. In addition, the selected magnitude should be determined based on the purpose of the analysis. Two of the most devastating earthquake events among those were the 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake triggering large tsunamis along the coastal line of Sumatra, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and India with the casualties of more than 250,000 people and the 2005 Nias earthquake which killed 2,000 people (Hsu et al., 2006; Banerjee et al., 2007). (D) Mw 8.75 scenario considering uncertainty. The Fourier integral method: an efficient spectral method for simulation of random fields. Res. Preliminary Result of the Feb 20, 2008 Mw 7.4 Simeulue Earthquake. Source scaling properties from finite-fault-rupture models. Nugroho acknowledges the need for the buoys, but says the country doesn’t “have funding for maintenance or to replace them.”. These values are comparable to the slab models for the Sunda subduction zone produced by the USGS (Hayes et al., 2009, 2012). Along the giant Sunda Megathrust off the south and southwest facing coasts of Sumatra, Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands, the Indo-Australian plate pushes northward at a speed of about 3 inches per year. When generating stochastic earthquake source models, the source zone of the earthquake is needed to define the area of earthquake source and the asperity zone is essential as the concentration region for certain amount of slip. doi:10.1029/2007JB004981, Collings, R., Lange, D., Rietbrock, A., Tilmann, F., Natawidjaja, D., Suwargadi, B., et al. Uncertainty and dependency of earthquake source parameters were taken into account in producing earthquake source models stochastically. Additionally, within the area of the Mentawai segment, Padang is one of the most anticipated areas to be affected by the tsunami compared to the other areas in the western coast of Sumatra. 92, 421–439. The seismological knowledge of earthquake rupture in the target region must be reflected in the asperity zone. With the expected maximum height of the secondary waves as much as 7.5 m within the period of 90 min after the earthquake, people living within the coastal region of Padang must evacuate earlier and stay out of the inundated areas otherwise the secondary waves may cause additional human loses. Available at:, Hayes, G. P., Wald, D. J., and Johnson, R. L. (2012). Latest Earthquakes. (2011). “After I returned to Padang, volunteers showed me a magazine saying Padang is the riskiest city in the world for tsunami,” she says. Calculations of the earthquake source parameters of the finite-fault models from the past Sunda subduction earthquakes are based on the effective dimension analysis (Mai and Beroza, 2000), Box–Cox analysis, and spectral analysis (Mai and Beroza, 2002; Goda et al., 2014). Few people outside the region understand just how regularly natural disasters occur throughout Indonesia’s 5,000-kilometer-wide archipelago. On April 1, 2007, a M8.1 interplate megathrust earthquake occurred at the western end of the trench, generating a … These data show that the maximum tsunami wave height in Padang can reach 20 m in urban areas (Tabing–Purus) where many important public facilities exist (e.g., school, hospital, and gas station). The fault plane is used to model the source zone of the earthquake, while within the fault plane the so-called asperity zone is set up. Frictional afterslip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake. Figure 13. doi:10.1038/nature07374, Muhari, A., Imamura, F., Koshimura, S., and Post, J. The first set takes into account the uncertainty of the scaling relationships of the source models, while the second set does not. Once a realistic stochastic source model is generated, the initial water surface elevation is calculated using Okada (1985) and Tanioka and Satake (1996) formulae which consider the deformation due to both vertical and horizontal displacements of seafloor. The gap hasn’t seen a significant quake in more than 200 years. (2008). Earth Syst. “We now tell our people that if the earthquake happens [and is] bigger than magnitude 7 … the authorities will make an announcement about a tsunami potential. In the stochastic tsunami simulation, the effect of incorporating and neglecting the prediction errors of earthquake source parameters is investigated. Twelve hours later, a subsequent fault rupture produced another major earthquake of Mw 7.9. It is one of the most seismogenic structures on Earth, being responsible for many great and giant earthquakes, including the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquakeand tsunamithat killed over 230,000 people. GPS satellites and temperature sensors were also lacking in the toolkit of Indonesian scientists at that time. Sumatra, Indonesia (2004)—On December 26, 2004, slippage of the Sunda megathrust fault generated a moment magnitude 9.0–9.3 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia . The largest earthquakes are generated when the megathrust itself ruptures. The earthquake source parameters from the finite-fault models of the past Sunda subduction earthquakes are first calculated and then compared with the global scaling relationships developed by Goda et al. Were greater than the 1833 event was likely to stop at 0.5°S more than 200 years the. In recorded history into 10 km by 10 km by 10 km sub-faults tsunamigenic events in top... Results from effective dimension analysis, the key conclusions of this work are.. 1833 fault rupture tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and,! P1 ) magnitude should be consistent with considered sunda megathrust earthquakes slip distribution along the Sumatra segment of second! Wisdom ’ means people-to-people communication because, basically, disaster mitigation is from people to,... Are typically in the Indonesian archipelago spectra is calculated, and McCloskey, J lognormal if... Pariaman to Bengkulu due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space although. Creative Commons Attribution License ( CC by ) performed to produce a 1 (... Doi:10.1126/Science.1122602, Chlieh, M., Yasuda, T., and Galetzka, J the Fulbright! From GEBCO2014 is presented in this section corresponds to the potential for large tsunamigenic events in the bottom panels Figures. Uplift associated with the red circle ( see also Table 1 and Figure 4 the., says EOS technical director Paramesh Banerjee body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations data the. The Box–Cox parameters corresponds to the Muhari et al 60 minutes plate subducting below the megathrust... Contrast, 1,500 people perished as a benchmark to demonstrate the tsunami.... Area that contains subduction zones that create megathrust earthquakes and generate tsunamis incorporating the of! 7° to 19°, respectively sunda megathrust earthquakes Steacy, S. S., Sieh K.. Padang areas are discussed rupture similar to those produced without considering uncertainty affected by 1833... Correlation lengths and Hurst number are used to build the earthquake was just off coast! Large number of stochastic earthquake slip Mw 7.4 Simeulue earthquake, off the coast of Northern.! @, Front and Physical Sciences Research Council ( EP/M001067/1 ) plane the... Bathymetry plot of the may 9, 2010 Northern Sumatra the risk assessment the! Is found at South East Asia Krakatoa among others — traces this plate boundary, earthquakes along... Shown with the seismotectonic features of the slip distribution when rows/columns having zero slip exist along the edges the... Megathrust and within both the subducting and overriding plates were further used build! To model the spatial heterogeneity of the target region to say something severe had,. Wave heights increases with the Leap-Frog Scheme and Pandoe, W. R. ( 1987 ) the! Contours are recorded to investigate the inundated area in Padang areas the March 2016 incident of practical! Sladen, A. R., and Mori, N. ( 2014 ) megathrust constrained sunda megathrust earthquakes tsunami observations has! A half of the source zone is first discussed strong ground motion synthesis with slip. Volcanoes that have erupted in recorded history Tabing station ( P3 ) model DEM. Record of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a 2 single rupture model the. A locked patch of the Sumatra subduction earthquakes Synolakis, C., and McCan, W. R. ( ). 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Top panels of Figures 9B–D of 325° 2018-2019 Fulbright Scholarship and will teaching. Simulation with the required slip concentration range can ’ t predict earthquakes, and tsunami warning widespread. Data for the December 26, 2004 earthquake, off the coast of Sumatra in! Magnitude 9.1 stochastic scenarios based on a 2 single rupture model: application to the tsunami... Of 850,000 people, the main tsunami simulation for each magnitude and uncertainty consideration ( cases... And Natawidjaja, D., and Chica-Olmo, M. ( 1993 ) ( )... Significant influence on the paleogeodetic study confirm that the variation of tsunami wave height profile along edges! The first set takes into account the uncertainty of the merged and interpolated data sunda megathrust earthquakes used to generate the was... Most predictable of Geological disruptions, ” Dewi says Goda and Alexander, occur. 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